Author : Kenneth A. Posner
Category : Business & Economics
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN : 0231150482
Type book : PDF & Epub
Page book : 296

While many books talk about forecasting and decision making, this one is particularly engaging because of Kenneth A. Posner's personal experience - and the honesty with which he discusses it. As a longtime analyst at Morgan Stanley, Posner had to make decisions about whether to invest in many recent high-profile, high-stakes "Black Swan" anomalies. He explains general models and approaches to dealing with uncertainty, sorting information, and developing your analytical skills and judgment. That alone is worthwhile, but the book is especially lively when Posner reviews his specific decisions. He shares his reasoning and exposes his successes and his failures to public view. The result is a knowledge-dense but very readable work that getAbstract recommends to all analysts, but also to those who want to deal with information overload and improve their decision making.

Author : Hakan Jankensgard
Category : Business & Economics
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN : 9781119868163
Type book : PDF & Epub
Page book : 246

An incisive framework for companies seeking to increase their resilience In The Black Swan Problem: Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty, renowned risk and finance expert Håkan Jankensgård delivers an extraordinary and startling discussion of how firms should navigate a world of uncertainty and unexpected events. It examines three fundamental, high-level strategies for creating resilience in the face of “black swan” risks, highly unlikely but devastating events: insurance, buffering, and flexibility: The author also presents: Detailed case studies, stories, and examples of major firms that failed to anticipate Black Swan Problems and, as a result, were either wiped out or experienced a major strategy disruption Extending the usual academic focus on individual biases to analyze Swans from an organizational perspective and prime organizations to proactive rather than reactive action Practical applications and tactics to mitigate Black Swan risks and protect corporate strategies against catastrophic losses and the collateral damage that they cause Strategies and tools for turning Black Swan events into opportunities, reflecting the fact that resilience can be used for strategic advantage An expert blueprint for companies seeking to anticipate, mitigate, and process tail risks, The Black Swan Problem is a must-read for students and practitioners of risk management, executives, founders, managers, and other business leaders.

Author : Instaread
Category : Mathematics
Publisher : Instaread
ISBN : 9781944195496
Type book : PDF & Epub
Page book : 38

The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a philosophical treatment of Taleb's research on highly improbable, high-impact events. These events, which Taleb calls “Black Swans,” are so improbable that they are unpredictable. However, pundits and scholars are often inclined to fit such extreme events into a causal narrative after the fact, in order to make history appear more organized… PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Inside this Instaread of The Black Swan:Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways

Author : Eric Lybeck
Category : Business & Economics
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN : 9781351352987
Type book : PDF & Epub
Page book : 92

One of the primary qualities of good creative thinking is an intellectual freedom to think outside of the box. Good creative thinkers resist orthodox ideas, take new lines of enquiry, and generally come at problems from the kinds of angles almost no one else could. And, what is more, when the ideas of creative thinkers are convincing, they can reshape an entire topic, and change the orthodoxy for good. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is precisely such a book: an entertaining, polemical, creative attack on how people in general, and economic experts in particular view the possibility of catastrophic events. Taleb writes with rare creative verve for someone who is also an expert in mathematics, finance, and epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge), and he martials all his skills to turn standard reasoning inside out. His central point is that far from being unimportant, extremely rare events are frequently the most important ones of all: it is highly improbable, but highly consequential occurrences – what he calls Black Swans – that have shaped history most. As a result, Taleb concludes, improbability is not a reason to act as if a possible event does not matter. Rather, it should inspire the opposite reaction.

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Category : Business & Economics
Publisher : Random House
ISBN : 9780679604181
Type book : PDF & Epub
Page book : 482

The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.” A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.

Author : Susan Anderson
Category :
Publisher :
Type book : PDF & Epub
Page book : 90

Author : Karen Robards
Category : Fiction
Publisher : Hachette UK
ISBN : 9781529338225
Type book : PDF & Epub
Page book : 480

A world at war. A beautiful young star. A mission no one expected. 'A truly outstanding novel, brilliantly written, that captured me and held me in its grip from page one. The Black Swan of Paris reminds us of the power of love, hope and courage' Heather Morris, #1 bestselling author of The Tattooist of Auschwitz Paris, 1944 Celebrated singer Genevieve Dumont is both a star and a smokescreen. An unwilling darling of the Nazis, her position of privilege allows her to go undetected as an ally to the resistance. When her estranged mother, Lillian de Rocheford, is captured by Nazis, Genevieve is shaken. She knows it won't be long before the Gestapo succeeds in torturing information out of Lillian that will derail the upcoming allied invasion. The resistance movement is tasked with silencing her by any means necessary - including assassination. But Genevieve refuses to let her mother become yet one more victim of the war. Reuniting with her long-lost sister, she must find a way to navigate the perilous cross-currents of Occupied France undetected - and in time to save Lillian's life. For fans of Danielle Steele's The Spy, Jane Thynne's Black Roses and Heather Morris' The Tattooist of Auschwitz, this exquisite novel illuminates three women's strength, courage and capacity for unconditional love. PRAISE FOR THE BLACK SWAN OF PARIS 'Emotional and powerful' Pam Jenoff, bestselling author of The Lost Girls of Paris 'Beautifully written and completely absorbing. ' Noelle Salazar, bestselling author of The Flight Girls 'An extraordinarily suspenseful, emotional read' Kelly Rimmer, bestselling author of The Things We Cannot Say Reader Reviews: 'Perfect! This novel was the first I've read by this author but I will definitely be reading more of her work. It was pacy, exciting, heart-breaking in places, with a truly believable romance sub-plot that was centred around characters I cared about.' 'A high octane read which is a real page turner and captures the heightened tension of the war perfectly. A brilliant read that I would recommend.' 'This is an excellent WWII historical fiction novel and it is for anyone that loves a good plot, suspense, and anyone that loves to read about the impressive underdog of the Resistance in France during the Occupation.' Robards paints a beautiful capture of the true Parisian Paris during WWII. Her first historical fiction should be praised for the attention to detail, emotional and action packed novel.'

Author : Carolyn Landon
Category : Aboriginal Australians
Publisher :
ISBN : 9781459624764
Type book : PDF & Epub
Page book : 338

A frank and powerful memoir of the life of an Aboriginal woman, from her early years on the Lake Tyers mission to discovery of her talent as a painter.

Author : Les Brown
Category : History
Publisher : Seaforth Publishing
ISBN : 9781526765970
Type book : PDF & Epub
Page book : 128

The technical details of British warships were recorded in a set of plans produced by the builders on completion of every ship. Known as the ‘as fitted’ general arrangements, these drawings represented the exact appearance and fitting of the ship as it entered service. Intended to provide a permanent reference for the Admiralty and the dockyards, these highly detailed plans were drawn with exquisite skill in multi-coloured inks and washes that represent the acme of the draughtsman’s art. Today they form part of the incomparable collection of the National Maritime Museum at Greenwich, which is using the latest scanning technology to make digital copies of the highest quality. This book is one of a series based entirely on these draughts which depict famous warships in an unprecedented degree of detail – complete sets in full colour, with many close-ups and enlargements that make every aspect clear and comprehensible. Extensive captions point the reader to important features to be found in the plans, and an introduction covers the background to the design. This volume is devoted to the sloops of the _Black Swan_ class and its improved derivatives, widely regarded as the ‘Rolls-Royce’ of Second World War convoy escorts. Heavily armed and superbly equipped for their role, they were among the most effective anti-submarine ships of the battle in the Atlantic. The design was gradually improved and this book uses plans of four selected ships to chart that development. These comprise: _Black Swan_ as built; _Flamingo_ as modified later; _Starling_, the single most successful U-boat hunter of the war, as in 1943; and _Amethyst_, as refitted after her clash with Chinese communists on the Yangtze in 1949.

Author : Elie Ayache
Category : Business & Economics
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN : 0470661763
Type book : PDF & Epub
Page book : 496

"Elie Ayache is the only person to present arguments about The Black Swan and rare events that I had not thought about. He does what philosophical inquiry has always done: to go the extra mile and look at the world in a deeply philosophical way." Nassim Nicholas Taleb, PhD, author of The Black Swan, Distinguished Professor, New York University Polytechnic Institute & Principal, Universa Investments. "Elie Ayache has uniquely straddled the down-to-earth world of money and complex financial derivatives and the abstract world of the mind and philosophy. Insightful and insane in equal measures, this book is not an easy read. I wouldn't recommend this for holiday reading on the beach but perhaps for while sitting in front of a log fire with a large Scotch, or probably several.??? Paul Wilmott, author of Frequently Asked Questions in Quantitative Finance October 19th 1987 was a day of huge change for the global finance industry. On this day the stock market crashed, the Nobel Prize winning Black-Scholes formula failed and volatility smiles were born, and on this day Elie Ayache began his career, on the trading floor of the French Futures and Options Exchange. Experts everywhere sought to find a model for this event, and ways to simulate it in order to avoid a recurrence in the future, but the one thing that struck Elie that day was the belief that what actually happened on 19th October 1987 is simply non reproducible outside 19th October 1987 - you cannot reduce it to a chain of causes and effects, or even to a random generator, that can then be reproduced or represented in a theoretical framework. The Blank Swan is Elie's highly original treatise on the financial markets – presenting a totally revolutionary rethinking of derivative pricing and technology. It is not a diatribe against Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan, but criticises the whole background or framework of predictable and unpredictable events – white and black swans alike – , i.e. the very category of prediction. In this revolutionary book, Elie redefines the components of the technology needed to price and trade derivatives. Most importantly, and drawing on a long tradition of philosophy of the event from Henri Bergson to Gilles Deleuze, to Alain Badiou, and on a recent brand of philosophy of contingency, embodied by the speculative materialism of Quentin Meillassoux, Elie redefines the market itself against the common perceptions of orthodox financial theory, general equilibrium theory and the sociology of finance. This book will change the way that we think about derivatives and approach the market. If anything, derivatives should be renamed contingent claims, where contingency is now absolute and no longer derivative, and the market is just its medium. The book also establishes the missing link between quantitative modelling (no longer dependent on probability theory but on a novel brand of mathematics which Elie calls the mathematics of price) and the reality of the market."